Introduction to infectious disease modeling
Slides: https://www.andreashandel.com/presentations/
2023-10-24
How do we do science?
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Dilbert
How do we get data?
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https://phdcomics.com/
Experimental studies
- The approach used in almost all bench/lab sciences.
- Clinical trials in Public Health and Medicine.
- Potentially most powerful because we have most control.
- Not always possible.
Observational studies
- Widely used in Public Health and other areas (e.g., Sociology, Economics, Geology).
- Not as powerful as experimental studies.
- Often the only option.
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Jim Borgman
Simulation/modeling studies
- Computer models can represent a real system.
- Simulated data is not as good as real data.
- Often the only option.
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https://xkcd.com/
Modeling definition
- The term modeling usually means (in science) the description and analysis of a system using mathematical or computational models.
- Many different types of modeling approaches exist. Simulation models are one type (with many subtypes).
Simulation modeling areas
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Source: NOAA
- Weather forecasting.
- Simulations of man-made, engineered system.
- Predicting the economy.
- Infectious disease transmission.
Infectious disease Simulation models
Computer models for some scenario (e.g. the spread of flu or COVID in the US):
- Understand what is going on
- Make forecasts
- Predict the impact of interventions
Models and Reality
- Every model is a simplification of the real system.
- It needs to include the details that are important to answer the question of interest.
Simple simulation model (SIR model)
This model tracks individuals (humans or animals) in 3 states, susceptible, infected/infectious and recovered/removed. It is called the SIR model.
Using an SIR-type model
Using an SIR-type model
CDC forecasting
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https://covid19forecasthub.org/
Learning simulation modeling
- It takes time to learn how to build, use and interpret models.
- One generally needs to write code to build simulation models.
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